To our surprise, the US economy has not entered a recession over the past two years. This is not because a recession has been avoided altogether but because the current economic cycle has been ...

An economic cycle measures an economy's performance over time. It has four notable periods before the cycle renews: expansion, peak, recession, and trough. During the expansion period of an economic ...

Two years ago, central banks embarked on the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades to restrain the extraordinarily expansive financing conditions deployed during the pandemic, measures that ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I share insight and perspective on financial advice and true wealth. A boom and bust cycle refers to the alternating periods of ...

The economic landscape is constantly shifting, creating both opportunities and challenges for businesses. While some companies struggle during downturns, others demonstrate resilience and thrive ...

Thomas Kevin Swift has packed insights gathered over a long career in industrial economics into A History of American Business Cycles, a book released earlier this year. The book tackles large volumes ...

Keynesian economics is a macroeconomic theory that advocates for active government intervention to manage economic cycles, particularly during recessions and depressions. Developed by British ...

Political budget cycles refer to the systematic fluctuations in fiscal instruments driven by the electoral calendar. Incumbent governments frequently engage in pre‐electoral stimulus—such as ...

In our opinion, it’s not the case that the US economy has avoided a recession, but rather that the current cycle has been elongated. We use the commodity/gold ratio (the Spot Commodity Index (GNX) ...